$48K Bitcoin?! The Math That Cracks the Price | Hashpower Academy

Video Transcript:

hello there and welcome to the Hashpower Academy My name is Jake Scannon I’m the lead educator here at the academy and this is a place for you to learn anything and everything to do with Bitcoin and its underlying network of technologies and commodities Now the topic of today’s video is more focusing on Bitcoin’s uh energy exchange rate between electricity kilowatt hours and BTC And these two have a very fundamental relationship in the Bitcoin network At any moment of time when the Bitcoin price was nothing and Satoshi Nakamoto what did he do he consumed electricity through his CPU on his laptop or computer We don’t know exactly what he had Um he consumed electricity and exchanged it into the first uh million Bitcoin or so There wasn’t an a dollar exchange rate So Bitcoin to kilowatt is actually the original exchange rate for Bitcoin And I call it exchange rate because it’s not a one-way process It’s not just consume energy to produce Bitcoin but actually it’s being introduced as a uh demand response uh relationship on the grid Miners are switching off when the power kilowatt hours priced in dollars for now um is more valuable to the local grid than what the global network is willing to pay you for the consumption of the power So miners have a direct choice to consume energy export it to the internet globally or sell it locally but we’ll delve into that into other videos So to to calculate the amount of Bitcoin you can earn per kilowatt has two fundamental things Your efficiency of machine your jewels or watts per terash The lower the the watts per terahash figure the more efficient the machine and the higher the amount of Bitcoin per kilowatt The less efficient the machine the more energy it consumes say 30 watts per terahash uh the lower the amount of Bitcoin you can earn per kilowatt because the machine is consuming more energy to produce the same amount of compute which earns a certain amount of Bitcoin These are all mathematically connected pieces So I’m just going to write out the formula because it’ll be much easier to understand So a kilowatt thousand watts If we’re going to move through the layers we need to understand a 1000 watts divided by efficiency So if this computer is consuming 21.75 watts to produce a h a terraash we’re going to divide a,000 by 21.75 So that is allowing us to understand that we’re making about 46 terraash per kilowatt um and 46 terraash produces and earns a certain amount of Bitcoin And this is where hash price comes in Now hash price is essentially how much Bitcoin you can earn per terahash of compute per day So we have a time variable a compute variable and a quantity of Bitcoin earned And we need to divide all of this down So let’s do let’s just draw it up here 455 Well just divide them 455 divided by 843 million terraash multiplied by the price So we’ve got this this direct conversion gets you the quantity of bitcoin If you do 455 divided by 843 you get the amount of bitcoin per xahash But one xahash is 1 million terraash So if we did 455 divided by 843 million and write that out you get the amount of the quantity of Bitcoin per terash per day because this is 144 blocks And if we multiply by price I believe we get a figure of 0.045 So we’re getting our 45 or 46 terraash by dividing a 1000 watts by 21.75 So that’s about 46 terraash Now if we multiply by the 0.045 so we’re earning 4.5 cent of Bitcoin per terahash per day Now if you just did this calculation you’re going to get about $2 worth of Bitcoin per day but we want it in uh per hour So 20 divided by 24 and this gets us to oh let’s draw it below it This gets us to a figure of 0.0 0.0 862 So there you are Now this is very long-winded but it’s requiring you to sort of break down the relationship between between all these pieces Again this dollar component to the kilowatt doesn’t have to be there In the future of Bitcoin it will just be kilowatt hours exchanged to a quantity of Bitcoin and you remove the dollar valuation of the Bitcoin and you remove the dollar valuation of the electricity The it’s a formality at that point But basically yeah you’re earning 8.62 cent of Bitcoin per kilowatt hour Now what if your electricity is 5 cent so for every 5 cent of electricity input cost you’re getting 8.6 cent of output revenue Now what we can do is multiply your input cost which is the production floor in this example and this is your revenue rate You multiply these two figures up to the point of one bitcoin And that gives you because this is a ratio For every 5 cent you’re earning 8.6 cent So if we divide them which gets gives us a ratio and then multiply it up to the Bitcoin price we get a production cost of about uh 80 No 48,000 Am I still on the screen here no 48,000 48,000 roughly So the network average production cost right now with 5 cent electricity with a 21.75 watts per terahash computer with the current network hash rate and network revenue is about $48,000 per bitcoin Now the other thing to know is that not every miner is using 5-cent energy The price on the grid is not always 5 cent So if the price on the grid is 678 cents the miner would be able to switch a machine off at different rates and the different efficiency of machine Right now if you’re using a 30 jewel per terahash machine it’s using more energy and we can we can change this figure for 30 So you do,000 divided by 30 which means you’re earning less hash rate per 5 cent of electrical cost kilowatt hour Same network revenue the same 24-hour day the production cost at uh fact let’s write these in 21.75 21.75 equals 48,000 if you’re a 30 jewel per terahash machine that’s about 66,000 per bitcoin and if you’re the latest efficient machine still using that 5 cent let’s say the 12 jewel per terahash it’s coming up at about 26,000 So there you go The latest generation machines of 12 JW per terahash which means you divide the,000 by 12 which is an even larger quantity of hash rate terraash per kilowatt multiply by the amount of Bitcoin per terahash that you’re earning per day divide it by 24 bring it down to an hour The production cost is $26,000 per Bitcoin But remember that a 30 watts per terahash machine is very very cheap less efficient higher production cost The average is still a good average 48,000 So you’re you’re earning a bitcoin under $50,000 but you have the cost of the machine to contend with And the latest generation machines of 12 jewels of energy cost to produce that output one terraash which earns a quantity of Bitcoin And the interesting thing of this it’s all mathematically connected We can remove the dollar entirely with this This is this is the interesting piece of the future And this calculating this gives you that information that if your electricity at home uh is 10 cent a kilowatt hour uh you wouldn’t want to mine with an average efficient machine because you’ll make a loss Right now with a 12 jewel perahash machine this will rise up to I want to say 15 cent There we go You can write in the comments section if you do a,000 / 12 ultiplied by 0.045 / 24 what is the amount of Bitcoin per kilowatt hour and if it’s more than 15 there you go If it’s less than 15 um and that is about the standard US energy rate I believe about 15 cent a kilowatt And obviously if you want to be producing one well $1 of electricity earns you $2 a bitcoin You would want an electricity rate in this example of 4.3 cent per kilowatt which is very cheap I think I’ll leave it there This is something that I’m definitely going to do I’m going to do another video at some point um on an Excel spreadsheet or something and and attach the the link uh or a Google sheet shall I say and attach the link into the uh the the comment section and allow you to just play and understand with the numbers and and having a a column with all of these facts and figures and as you change them you see what changes in terms of production costs And the most interesting thing here between the production cost and the market price is you can create a percentage between them And that percentage is a very good metric to understanding the good time to buy or not As I said earlier in the video when you’re able to buy Bitcoin at these sorts of prices it’s an absolute steal Not so much stealing it’s you are able to buy Bitcoin at the same rate that miners are producing And what Bitcoin does over time is the older more inefficient machines with higher production costs they get kicked off the network The network pays people who are efficient As you introduce more efficient chips you earn Bitcoin at that lower right rate That is fair If someone is to acquire the money at a lower cost it’s because they were highly efficient and had lots of energy availability Because in the future the aspect of Bitcoin so kilowatt hour being an exchange rate is they can buy the energy to produce Bitcoin at this rate in dollars for now But also if the price of energy goes if the price of energy went to 9 cent why would you consume the power sell it to them at 9 cent instead of earning from the network at 8.6 cent So Bitcoin miners are going to be an exchange rate where the rate of revenue defined by the global network is um a benchmark a price in which external uh transactions can settle and bring that value into the network Because you’re if you’re selling energy at 9 cent to buy 8.6 cent a bitcoin there is a capital inflow into the network by providing a deliverable commodity of electricity to the real world Right thank you for listening I hope you enjoy I I want to know if uh you’ve done this calculation Do a 1000 watts divided by 12 multiplied by 0.045 divided by 24 and you get your Bitcoin per kilowatt hour with the latest efficient machine And if you divide 5 cent by that rate you’ll get approximately I believe $26,000 when you multiply it by the uh Bitcoin price And again I’m going to have some uh charts and metrics and a Google sheet at some point for you to learn even more Thank you for listening Hope you enjoy and I’ll see you in the next one Goodbye